Weekly Outlook 02th of April - 06th of April, 2018

2018-04-03

To date, the pair EURUSD is still lowered volatility, as the main trading floors are still closed due to the Easter holidays.

In the week, the upcoming news is forming a rather positive background for the dollar. Wednesday is expected to publish inflation in the euro area, and on Friday there will be fresh data on the labor market in the US.
There are no reasons for accelerating inflation in Europe, which is a significant obstacle to raising the ECB rates.

By the end of the week, the EURUSD pair may shift from the current level to the level of 1.22, as the labor market figures in the US continue to show strong momentum, reflecting the strong growth of the US economy.

With regard to the commodity market, Brent crude on the basis of the last trading week managed to register at the highs above 70 and close in the red after three weeks of continuous growth.
On Monday, the market opened with a small gap up and stabilized, determined with a further direction.

In the short term, the quotes are likely to continue to target 70 and above. This week this opportunity will be presented if the statistics on reserves and production in the US will not be negative for the market, and OPEC exporters will continue to warm up the expectations of the extension of the agreement.

The pound at the end of last week was prone to growth against the dollar. The GBP / USD pair was firmly entrenched above the 1.40 level, which was overcome very recently after the announcement of a possible trade war between the US and China.
Great Britain pleased investors with positive statistics on the balance of payments - the negative balance decreased much more than the forecast, which is a positive factor for the economy and the exchange rate.

According to the COT (Commitments of Traders) reports provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week ending last Tuesday:
Large speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) increased net position for the purchase of contracts for gold by 58.6 thousand contracts to 211.9 thousand. Large players began to build up a net position to buy after they reduced it for the last six weeks. The net position on the purchase became the highest since January 30.

The COT reports on gold reflect a sharp rise in bullish sentiment. After a two-month contraction, traders sharply increased the build-up of a net position aimed at rising prices. Continuation of this trend can contribute to higher prices for precious metals. At the same time, the net position again approached the levels, the maximum since the end of January, when the price of gold began to decline.

Monday: April 2
US ISM Manufacturing Activity Index
Canada PMI Manufacturing Activity Index

Tuesday: April 3
US Representative of the Federal Reserve of the Republic of Kashkari
Australia Reserve Bank of Australia decision on interest rate
Australia Accompanying Statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia
Eurozone Business activity index in the manufacturing sector Markit
UK Marketer in the manufacturing sector Markit
USA Statement by member of the US Federal Open Market Committee Lel Brainard
 
Wednesday: April 4
Eurozone Basic consumer price index (y / y) (March)
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (y / y) (March)
Eurozone Unemployment rate

Thursday: April 5
Eurozone Information on the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting


Friday: April 6th
USA NFP
United States Average hourly wage (y / y) (March)
Canada Change in the number of employees (March)