Weekly Outlook 05th of March -09th of March, 2018

2018-03-05

Last week, the US dollar showed growth against all major currencies - the British pound + 0.50%, the Canadian dollar + 0.85%, the Japanese yen + 0.60% the Australian dollar + 0.95%, the euro +0, 94%, Swiss franc + 1.08%, New Zealand dollar + 1.36%.
Since early 2017, the Chinese yuan has grown by 10%. To the US dollar, experts said that the world's second-largest economy also maintains its currency in order to prevent US policy. In January, China's currency expanded profit by another 3.6%. Thus, the Chinese Yuan is becoming an increasingly attractive currency for investors of our company.
The US president announced 25% - the tariff for steel imports, 10% - the tariff for the import of aluminum in the near future, experts call this the beginning of the trade war with Europe. President of the European Commission Juncker responded that the EU would respond immediately and a similar step by the US would entail losses in the American economy, Stock markets reacted negatively, the Dow Jones index fell by 1.70%. Earlier, Bloomberg called Trump's idea of ​​tariffs worst for the US economy. The most likely result of this will be a rise in prices, a reduction in economic growth, a reduction in jobs, an increase in the tax burden, and the provocation of economic retaliation by other players. In addition, it can destabilize the global trading system.
The US dollar mainly strengthened against the backdrop of fundamental news - the ECB's current account balance fell to a 6-month low of 29.65 billion euros in December from 35 billion euros in November. The surplus of primary income in the Eurozone has noticeably decreased to 3.65 billion euros from 12.8 billion euros. According to a survey conducted by the ZEW Institute, the Current Conditions Index fell to 92.3 from 95.2, while the Sentiment Index in the business environment fell to 17.8 points from 20.4 in January. The head of the Japanese Central Bank, Kuroda, said that, if necessary, Japan would withdraw from the quantitative easing policy in 2019. This statement led to a fall in the yen to 105.80. The British Pound was cheaper against the background of reports on financial loads of households, the index fell to 42.2 in February. Unexpectedly, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, while the number of unemployed rose for the third consecutive month. The number of employed people grew less than expected, an increase of 88,000, GDP growth over the last three months of 2017 was revised to 0.4% from 0.5% earlier. On an annualized basis, GDP growth in the fourth quarter was reduced to 1.6% from 2.0%.
We bring to your attention a number of news, which in the opinion of the team of analysts of the company will have the greatest impact on the market this week.

 

Monday the 5th of March
China - Activity index of purchasing managers Caixin (PMI)
Germany - Indices of business activity in the service sector and composite index
Eurozone - Composite index of business activity in the manufacturing sector Markit
USA - Composite index of business activity, Placing of bills.

 

Tuesday 6 March
Australia - Retail sales, Current account balance, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate decision, Speech by the Head of the RBA, Activity index in the construction sector.
Switzerland - consumer price indices.
Canada - Index of business activity.
USA - Industrial order data

 

Wednesday 7 March
Australia - GDP data
Japan - Indices of coinciding and leading indicators - Used to assess the current state of the economy.
Eurozone - GDP data
USA - the speech of representatives of the Federal Reserve, the level of employment in the private sector, labor productivity, trade balance.
Canada - Number of construction projects started, International merchandise trade report, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.


Thursday March 8
Japan - Foreign investment in the Japanese economy, Japanese investments in foreign bonds, foreign trade balance, balance of payments, GDP data.
Australia - trade balance, data on imports and exports.
China - trade balance, data on imports and exports.
Switzerland - data on unemployment.
Eurozone - The decision of the ECB on the interest rate, comment on the monetary policy.
USA - continuing and initial Jobless Claims
New - Zealand - Retail sales using electronic cards

 

Friday the 9th of March
Japan - Household Expenditures, National Consumer Price Index, The M2 + CD Money Supply Dynamics published by the Bank of Japan estimates the amount of JPY in circulation, including banknotes and coins, as well as cash held in bank accounts. The Bank of Japan's decision on the interest rate.
Germany - Trade balance, data on exports and imports.
UK - Industrial production data, trade balance, GDP growth estimate.
Canada - Unemployment rate
USA - NFP.