Weekly Outlook 12th of February-16th of February, 2018
Last week, the US dollar strengthened against its main competitors - The biggest fall against the US dollar was shown by the British pound -2.14%, the rest - the New Zealand dollar -0.78%, the Swiss franc -0.95%, the Canadian dollar -1.41 %, euro -1.796%, Australian dollar -1.54%. The growth was shown only by the Japanese Yen on the fundamental indicators - + 1.33%
Last week, the fall of US stock markets continued - the Dow Jones index fell by 1038 points or 4.16% to 23860 on Thursday. The S & P index dropped 102 points, or 3.76%, to 2581. Fed officials Dudley, Harker, George and Kaplan together declare that "while the fall in stocks is small and has no economic consequences, there was an abnormally long growth in the stock markets, called a healthy correction." They are more confident in the longevity of economic growth in the US, and that the Fed will need to raise rates. He believes that 3 rate increases look very reasonable, 4 increases are possible if the outlook for the economy improves. He expects that the cost of servicing the US debt will grow significantly. The US Senate voted in favor of a bill that would suspend the national debt threshold until March 1, 2019 and allow $ 300 billion in additional costs.
The pound mainly lost its positions against the US dollar. The results of the survey showed that the activity of services in January grew at the slowest pace in a year and a half. The Industrial Production Index fell 1.2 points compared to December, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to keep the interest rate unchanged, industrial production in Britain fell by 1.3% in December compared to November, Consumer spending in January decreased by 1.2% compared to the same month in 2017, and store expenses decreased by 4%.
The market of crypto currency stopped its decline. The total capitalization of the market has grown by almost $ 120 billion, or 44%, to the lows of last Tuesday, although the market as a whole has been calm for the last two days of the week. Bitcoin bargained for about $ 8,000, Ethereum about $ 800. The exception is Bitcoin Cash, which added more than 25% last Friday. Earlier, the market fell sharply due to the fact that the largest US banks banned buying crypto-currencies using credit bank cards, as well as regulators of several countries threatened to prohibit any operations with bitcoins.
We bring to your attention a number of news, which in the opinion of the team of analysts of the company will have the greatest impact on the market this week.
Monday 12th February
Japan is a day off
China - data on direct investment, the report on the money supply M2, issued by the People's Bank of China, reflects the amount of RMB in circulation, including cash, banknotes and small coins, as well as money in bank accounts, the issuance of new loans.
Switzerland - Consumer Price Index.
US - placement of bills, Monthly budget statement
Tuesday the 13th of February
Japan - The price index for corporate goods - an assessment of changes in the level of prices for goods purchased by Japanese corporations.
Australia - Index of conditions and business confidence of the National Bank of Australia.
United Kingdom - Price indices, Inflation, retail sales data.
USA - Statement by a member of the US Federal Open Market Committee, Retail sales index, changes in oil reserves.
New - Zealand - changes in food prices.
Wednesday 14th February
Japan - Annual Report on GDP
Germany - Price indices, GDP data, presentation by the head of the Bundes Bank.
Eurozone - GDP data, Industrial Production.
Switzerland - Speech of a member of the Board of Governors of the National Bank of Switzerland.
USA - Retail sales without cars, Consumer price indices, Basic Index
Thursday February 15
Australia - Consumer confidence index, Consumer price inflation, employment and unemployment.
Japan - Report on new orders for engineering products, data on industrial production and use of industrial capacities.
Eurozone - Trade Balance.
USA - Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, primary and repeated applications for unemployment benefits, Producer Price Indices, Industrial Production, changes in gas reserves.
New Zealand - The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand,
Australia - Speech by the Head of the RBA
Friday the 16th of February
Japan - Foreign investment in Japanese stocks, investments in Foreign shares.
Germany - The index of wholesale prices.
United Kingdom - data on retail sales.
USA - Data on building permits, Export and import price indices,