Weekly Outlook 12th of March - 16th of March, 2018

2018-03-12

Last week, the Dollar showed mixed dynamics - showed weakening against the Australian dollar - 1.13%, Canadian dollar - 0.54%, New Zealand dollar - 0.68%, British pound - 0.38%. Strengthened against the Swiss franc + 1.51%, the Japanese yen + 1.08%, Euro + 0.11%

Strengthening the dollar against can be attributed to good data on employment in the US - so the growth rate of employment in the private sector of the US slightly accelerated in February, and were stronger than forecast. According to the report, in February the number of employed increased by 235 thousand people compared to +234 thousand in January. Analysts had expected that the number of employed will increase by 195 thousand. On Friday, data on jobs was published. The Ministry of Labor reported that the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector increased by 313,000 people, the highest since 2016. The growth of average hourly earnings was 0.1% in February, compared to 0.3% in January, which in turn reduced the annual increase in hourly earnings to 2.6% against the January 2.8%.


The British Pound traded in different directions throughout the week - After the statement of Teresa May about the progress in the negotiations on the transition period, the Pound strengthened, as did the good data on the PMI Index in the services sector - an increase of 1.5% compared to January figures. Further, Pound declined on a warning from the European Union that Britain's reluctance to ease the Brexit conditions would lead to economic consequences, and weaker than expected Industrial production data.


In January, the unemployment rate in Japan was 2.4% against the expected 2.7%. In January, retail sales in Japan grew by 1.6%, against the expected 2.1% and the industrial production index decreased by 6.6%, against the expected 4.2%.


Over the year, interest in crypto currencies as an investment instrument increased by 18%. At the same time, gold indicators were 15%, and bonds - 6%, thereby creeping currencies bypassed gold and bonds in attractiveness. As early as 2017, interest in gold and bonds increased by 50% and 42%. Nevertheless, close monitoring by the regulators of Japan and the US reduces the rate of major crypto currencies. The Financial Services Agency of Japan (FSA) ordered the suspension of the two exchanges - FSHO and Bit Station - for one month. The regulator also ordered six more sites before March 22 to provide a plan to improve security measures. In the US Many platforms call themselves "exchanges," which can mislead investors, creating the feeling that these sites are regulated or comply with the regulatory standards of national stock exchanges - so the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States for the first time stated that online- Platforms that operate as platforms for digital assets that relate to securities must register in accordance with standard requirements for the national exchange.


Last week, oil showed growth to 62.11 USD per barrel of Brent + 0.11%.

Gold to 1.323.80 USD per ounce - 0.03%

 

We bring to your attention a number of news items that, in the analyst's opinion, will have an impact on the movement of trading instruments

Monday March 12th
US - monthly budget statement, Placing bills

 

Tuesday March 13
New Zealand - RBNZ Governor Grant Spencer speech.
Australia - Statement by the Deputy Head of the RBA, data on mortgage loans, indices of conditions and confidence in the business environment.
China - Foreign direct investment
Japan - The index of activity in the service sector, reflects the situation in the domestic service sector of the country.
UK - Budget Report - Provides information on projections for indicators such as GDP, expenditure, borrowing, and monetary measures.
USA - Consumer Price Indices
Canada - Speech by the head of the Bank of Canada.

 

Wednesday 14 March
Australia - Speech by Deputy Head of the RBA, consumer confidence index.
Japan - Meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japan, data on orders for engineering products, the index of activity in the service sector.
China - data on industrial production and retail sales.
Germany - Harmonized index of consumer prices.
Eurozone - the speech of the head of the ECB, data on industrial production.
USA - Retail sales excluding cars, producer price indices.

 

Thursday March 15
New Zealand - GDP data
Japan - Meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japan, investment in foreign bonds and foreign investment in Japanese stocks.
Australia - Expectations for consumer price inflation, reflect consumer expectations for future inflation for the next 12 months.
Switzerland - Decision on the interest rate, Quarterly report of the National Bank.
USA - Primary and repeated applications for jobless claims.

 

Friday March 16th
New Zealand - The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand.
Germany - The index of wholesale prices.
Eurozone - Consumer price indices, unit labor costs