Weekly Outlook 15th-19th of January, 2018

2018-01-15

US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin announced an increase in US public debt by the end of February, although the Treasury has estimated that the state debt limit will be enough to last until March-April. Still in September 2017, the limit of state debt was on the 19 trillion mark. 810 billion dollars, and now it is on the bar in 20 trillion. 500 billion dollars, the Treasury obviously has not spent the $ 647 billion, on which the threshold of public debt has been raised since September, the deficits are still quite small by the standards of the past. It is the delay in budgetary factors that allows the dollar to be still weak, and all this will be played later, just like in 2014, after a 10-month stay at inadequately high levels, the euro-dollar collapsed colossally.
Additional support for the euro was provided by the increased hopes of investors that the ECB politicians are preparing to reduce their large-scale monetary incentive program, as well as the news that Chancellor Merkel has entered into a deal with her rivals the Social Democrats (SPD) to begin negotiations on a government coalition, that can return the global role of Germany as the main country in Evrozné.

By the end of the week, almost all major currencies showed an increase. The largest increase in relation to the US dollar was shown by the Japanese yen (+ 1,79%). A smaller increase was recorded by the euro (+ 1.31%), the British pound (+ 1.24%), the New Zealand dollar (+ 1.24%), the Australian dollar (0.68%), and the Swiss franc %). The fall was shown only by the Canadian dollar (-0.49%).

The main reason for the fall of the main crypto-currencies was a statement by the South Korean Justice Minister Pak San-Guy about the option of a complete ban on crypto-instruments in the country. This news caused panic in the market, as there are decent volumes of trades in the country. Later, the president's representative softened the situation, which allowed the market to stabilize slightly.

Bitcoin showed minor changes in dynamics during the week, trading at $ 13,500 - 14,500. In the meantime, the process of maintaining the bitcoine network due to mining is becoming more expensive in China after the government's statements regarding fears about the rise in price of energy. There is growing attention on the part of regulatory bodies in the US because of concerns over possible use of crypto-currency for fraudulent purposes, for example, for money laundering. In early February, the hearings of the Securities and Exchange Commission are expected and representatives of the Senate Banking Committee will address the topic of risks in the field of Crypto-currency.

Oil prices have slightly decreased, but still remain near the highs of 2014 against the backdrop of the current contract to limit the extraction of raw materials from OPEC and countries outside the cartel, as well as a steady demand for oil due to accelerated global economic growth. The price of Brent oil fell by -0.12% to $ 69.18 per barrel.

The main driver of demand for gold was the widespread weakening of the dollar. First of all, this is the uncertainty of the prospects for the monetary policy of the Fed. Just the growth of gold, recently, contributed to the news that China can reduce or stop buying US government bonds. China is the largest creditor of the United States. On its balance is 1.2 trillion. dollars in US government bonds.

We bring to your attention a number of news, which in the opinion of the team of analysts of the company will have the greatest impact on the market this week.

 

Monday January 15th
A day off in the US, the American session does not work - the birthday of Martin Luther King
Eurozone - Trade Balance - Eurostat's difference between exports and imports of goods and services
New Zealand - Retail sales using electronic payment cards published by the Bureau of Statistics, business confidence index from the Institute for Economic Research.
Japan - Index of domestic prices for corporate goods.

 

Tuesday January 16th.
Australia - inflation data
China - Foreign Direct Investment Report
Germany - Consumer Price Index
United Kingdom - Producer price indices, inflation data.
US - data on the placement of bills, the average yield on bills issued by the US Treasury.
Switzerland - the speech of the head of the National Bank of Switzerland, Jordan.
Japan - orders for machine-building products - reflects the total volume of orders for engineering products located in major Japanese manufacturing companies.

 

Wednesday January 17th
Australia - mortgage loans and borrowing for the construction of houses.
Eurozone - Price indices, inflation rate
Canada - information on changes in monetary policy from the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Committee, the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision.
US - data on industrial production, net purchases of US securities by foreign investors,
Japan - data on foreign investment in Japanese stocks and Japan's investment in foreign bonds.

 

Thursday January 18

Australia - data on unemployment and the level of the employed population
China - GDP change, industrial production, retail sales
Switzerland - price indices
US - primary and repeated applications for unemployment benefits, data on housing construction, changes in gas, oil and petroleum products.
New Zealand - the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.


 
Friday January 19th
Germany - producer price index
United Kingdom - retail sales data
USA - Report on active oil platforms