Weekly Outlook 29th of January-02th of February, 2018

2018-01-29

By the end of the week, all major currencies showed growth against the dollar. Most of all, the Australian dollar rose + 1.12%. A smaller increase was recorded by the New Zealand dollar + 0.40%, the Japanese yen + 0.65%, the Swiss franc (+ 0.78%), the euro (+ 0.22%) and the British pound + 0.05%, the Canadian dollar +0 , 40%,

Investors followed the news from the US Senate, awaiting a vote on extending the term of the resolution on temporary financing of the executive until February 8. As a result, the US Senate voted 81 to 18 against the adoption of measures that pave the way for the resumption of the work of the US government. For the first time since December 17, 2014, the Euro was above the psychological mark of $ 1.2500.
The Ministry of Trade reported that orders for durable goods jumped 2.9% in December, following a 1.7% rise in November (revised from 1.3%). It was expected that orders will increase only by 0.5%. Orders for durable goods, excluding transport, increased by 0.6%, exceeding forecasts at 0.5%, while orders excluding the defense industry increased by 2.2%, which was significantly higher than expectations (+0 , 3%). A separate report from the Ministry of Commerce showed that the US economy continued to grow in the fourth quarter, having lost a bit of momentum since the summer. US GDP adjusted for inflation increased by 2.6% year on year. Economists had expected growth of 2.9%. In the second and third quarters, GDP growth slightly exceeded 3%. The last growth, caused by a significant increase in the costs of US consumers and enterprises, has limited the best year of the economy since 2014. Many economists expect the economy to keep momentum this year, mainly due to strong base growth, and a $ 1.5 trillion tax cut by the Congress in late 2017.

Last week, the pound grew significantly, breaking the psychological mark of $ 1.42100. On the fundamental news - the unemployment rate in Britain remained at the lowest level, observed since 1975. The number of unemployed decreased to 1.43 million, employment rose to 75.3%, weekly wages, including bonuses, increased by 2.5%, GDP grew by 0.5% in the fourth quarter.

Crypto currency rates went down on the news that one of the largest Japanese exchanges froze the withdrawal of client funds. Representatives of the Tokyo crypto-bureau stated that they freeze all conclusions, trade on all tokens except Bitcoin,
Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple, said during the Nordic Business Forum in Stockholm that he sold all his bitcoins in December 2017 at a rate of $ 20,000, about the same time he sold all his bitcoins and one of the creators of Bitcoin.com, Emil Oldenburg. Earlier Wozniak spoke positively about the popular crypto currency and noted that as a means of saving bitcoin has a more serious potential than gold. However, the BTC as a means of payment did not justify his hopes. He hoped that it would be possible to come to conditional Helsinki and pay bitcoin in restaurants and hotels, but so far there is no such possibility. The US Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a $ 6 million claim against the My Big Coin (MBC) crypto currency project. The creators of My Big Coin received $ 6 million for a non-existent coin. According to the prosecution, the company representatives transferred users' funds to their bank accounts and then spent these funds on personal needs and buying luxury goods. Two US financial regulators, the Securities and Exchange Commission ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - said they would strengthen control over the crypto-currency industry. Significant funds will soon be allocated to regulate the industry of crypto-currencies in order to suppress any fraudulent activity in the market.

World oil prices again showed impressive growth rates mainly under the influence of a sharp weakening of the US dollar. The currency factor gave an advantage to the WTI oil grade, which showed better dynamics compared to the Brent grade. As a result, prices for WTI rose to $ 66.60, while prices for BRENT rose to $ 71.25, breaking the $ 71 level for the first time since late 2014.

We bring to your attention a number of news, which in the opinion of the team of analysts of the company will have the greatest impact on the market this week.

 

Monday January 29th
USA - Data on personal expenses, placement of 3 and 6 monthly bills
New Zealand - data on trade balance, exports and imports

 

Tuesday January 30
Japan - Unemployment rate and sales data
Australia - The NAB Business Conditions Report, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reflects the picture of the trade, shows the income situation, as well as the Australian labor market.
Germany - consumer price index
United Kingdom - Number of new mortgage loans issued, changes in consumer loans, speech by the head of the Bank of England
Eurozone - GDP data

 

Wednesday January 31st
Australia - price indices and inflation data
China - Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the index of business activity in the service sector
USA - speech by Donald Trump, the Monetary Policy Committee of the US Federal Reserve announces its decision on the interest rate. FRS Commentary on Monetary Policy
Germany - Retail sales data, unemployment rate
Eurozone - price indices, unemployment rate
Canada - GDP data
Japan - Foreign investment in Japanese stocks, Investments in foreign bonds

 

Thursday February 1
Australia - the number of construction permits issued, import and export price indices
Switzerland - the real volume of retail trade
Germany - Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector
Eurozone - Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector
United Kingdom - Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector
USA - Primary and repeated applications for unemployment payments, inflation index, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the change in gas and oil reserves
Canada - Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector
New Zealand - the number of building permits and the number of tourists arrived

Friday, February 2nd
Eurozone - Producer Price Index
US - number of jobs in non-agricultural sector