Weekly Outlook 16th of April - 20th of April, 2018


EURUSD remains on the previous in a narrow corridor of 1.22-1.245 since the beginning of March. At present, there are a number of factors that form the prerequisites for short-term strengthening of the dollar. These include, first of all, the acceleration of inflation in the US faster than in Europe, the reduction in the balance of the Fed and the low appetite for risk at global sites. One of the obstacles to strengthening the dollar under these conditions may be a possible redistribution of global international reserves from dollar assets to assets denominated in euros. The coming week will not be very rich in macroeconomic statistics. Rather, a couple of EURUSD will be influenced by the numerous scheduled performances by the representatives of the Fed. Additional signals about the recovery of the US economy, as well as the acceleration of inflation, which are likely to be noted by the representatives of the Federal Reserve, can support the dollar within a week, shifting the EURUSD pair to the 1.23 area. Today, the publication of statistics on retail sales in the US at 15:30 in Moscow, where the dynamics is expected to improve compared to the previous month, may provide additional support for the dollar.

Interest in trading this week, the currency will be the Canadian dollar, because already on Wednesday comes the decision on the interest rate, and judging by all the macroeconomic data, we can see its increase. Therefore, consider this when trading, well, you can gradually buy the Canadian dollar on kickbacks.

Oil declines moderately in the course of trading on Monday. Despite the continuing tension in the Middle East, market players record profits after the contracts reached the maximum marks for the last 3 years. In addition, some pressure on the market was locally provided by data on the growth of the number of drilling rigs in the United States by the results of the week (+7 units). Short-term landmarks for Brent will continue to perform marks of $ 71-73 / bbl

Against the background of easing tensions in the markets caused by the US trade war with the PRC and military actions in Syria, investors are again actively investing in stock markets. In conditions of return of appetite for risk, gold is again under pressure.
Bounced from the level of 1364 dollars per ounce, precious metal quotations returned to the consolidation range. They almost immediately broke through the support in the area of ​​1343/40, which led to a decrease to the level of 1334.
According to analysts, the loss of the above support implies a decrease in the direction of 1320 dollars per ounce, and the break through this level will allow the bears to test the support of 1310/08. Returning above 1340/43 will provide the opportunity for the bulls to test the resistance of 1350.


MONDAY, APRIL 16, 2018
USA "Retail Control Group" (March)
USA Retail sales excluding car sales (m / m) (March)

AUS Minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia Report
GBR Average wage including bonuses (3m / y) (February)
GBR Average wage excluding bonuses (3m / y) (February)

GBR Basic consumer price index (y / y) (March)
GBR Consumer Price Index (y / y) (March)


AUS Unemployment rate (March)
AUS Employment level (March)


FRIDAY, APRIL 20, 2018
GBR - Speech by the representative of the Bank of England Saunders
CA - Price indices, inflation
USA- Report Baker Hughes on active oil platforms in the US