Weekly Outlook 19th of March - 23th of March, 2018
Last week the Dollar was mainly strengthened against the main basket of currencies - the Canadian Dollar + 2.18%, New Zealand Dollar + 0.95%, Australian Dollar + 1.75%, Euro + 0.15%, Swiss Franc + 0.14%, the Dollar against the British Pound weakened - 0.70% and the Japanese Yen weakened -0.65%.
The catalyst for strengthening the dollar could serve good data on industrial production, increasing the yield of US government bonds, consumer confidence and the labor market. Industrial production in the US grew by 0.7% against the expected 1.1% against 0.4%, respectively. In annual terms, up to 4.5%, which is the highest figure for the last 7 years. In addition, a review of the vacancies and turnover of labor from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed that in January the number of vacancies jumped to 6,312 million, updating its record high.
The British Pound showed a slight increase on the backdrop of conflicting data on Britain - concerns about the prospects for Brexit continue to adversely affect the Pound. Consumer spending at the beginning of the year was the weakest since 2012, falling by 1.1%. Further data were published on the forecast of GDP growth - the forecast was raised to 1.5% growth in 2018, the budget deficit will be 2.3% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019, 1.5% in 2020.
Last week became a new test for investors in crypto currency. The market showed a rapid decline. The bitcoin rate fell to $ 7,800. At the moment, bitcoin returned to the area of $ 8,200. Recall that in March, the largest insurance company in Europe Allianz expressed the opinion that the bubble in the bitcoin market will burst sooner or later. The insurer's management believes that the real cost of bitcoin is zero. Also in March, investment bank Goldman Sachs warned that in the near future the cost of bitcoin will fall below the February lows and may drop to a mark of five thousand dollars. Nevertheless, not all market participants are negative about bitkoy - Financial experts in the UK expect growth in the currency, a survey showed that more than half of investors 56% plan to buy more crypto currencies this year, and only 8% are ready to sell their coins.
World oil prices moved in different directions: the price of Brent grew, while the WTI grade went down. As a result, prices for the WTI brand were down to $ 60.30, while the prices for Brent grade were down to $ 64.08. In general, the oil market remained under pressure from growing political uncertainty. The change in the US Secretary of State creates conditions for the disruption of the deal with Iran, which could lead to a reduction in the supply of Iranian oil to the world market.
Gold prices rose to $ 1,330 under the influence of growing political uncertainty and protectionist scandals initiated by the United States. The insurance function of metal is in great demand, especially in the face of growing inflation.
We bring to your attention a number of news, which, in the opinion of the analyst, will have an impact on the movement of trading instruments.
Monday 19 March
Japan - Data on imports and exports, total trade balance
Eurozone - Trade balance, output in the construction sector.
USA - Placing bills.
Tuesday 20 March
New Zealand - The study of consumer sentiment, is an indicator of the mood of consumers or companies in New Zealand.
Australia - Housing Price Index, speech by the Deputy Head of the RBA.
Japan - Indices of coinciding and leading indicators.
Germany - Producer Price Indices, Mood Index in a business environment.
Switzerland - Import, Export, Trade Balance, Quarterly Report of the National Bank.
United Kingdom - Consumer price indices, producer price indices, retail price index.
Eurozone - Index of business expectations, Level of consumer confidence.
Wednesday 21 March
New Zealand - the number of tourists arriving, spending on credit cards.
Australia - Index of leading economic indicators - an indicator published by the University of Melbourne and tracks the dynamics of nine indicators of economic activity, including stock prices and phone installation.
Eurozone - ECB meeting.
United Kingdom - Average wage, Net borrowings of the public sector, unemployment data, applications for jobless claims.
Switzerland - Quarterly Report of the National Bank.
USA - Sales on the secondary housing market, Changes in oil reserves, Decision on the interest rate, Federal Reserve comment on monetary policy, Press Conference of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve
Thursday March 22
New Zealand - The decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the interest rate.
Australia - Data on unemployment.
Japan - Activity index in all sectors.
Germany - Activity index in the manufacturing sector, service sector, composite index.
Eurozone - Activity index in the manufacturing sector, services sector, composite index, economic bulletin.
UK - Retail sales, Minutes of the BoE meeting, Bank of England decision on interest rate.
US - the number of primary and repeated applications for jobless claims, housing price index, business activity indices.
Friday 23 March
Japan - Japan - Consumer Price Indices, Investments in Japanese Shares, Japan's investment in foreign bonds.
Canada - Consumer price indices.
USA - Sales of new homes, Report on active oil platforms.