Weekly Outlook 22th-26th of January, 2018
Constant problems with the limit of the US public debt are gradually reaching a turning point, and today there may be some additional political difficulties, because the Senate needs to pass a bill to avoid an immediate suspension of the government's work, and even such an action plan will only extend the financing for about a week. The most obvious factor for the weakening of the dollar is its current strong fall compared with the Chinese yuan, and the rate in the pair USD / CNY fell to the level of 6.40.
The US dollar recovering all the previously lost positions, rose against the euro, despite the increased risks of suspending government funding.
The dollar index, which reflects the ratio of the dollar to the basket of the six major currencies, is trading at an increase of 0.07%, at 90.56,
The British Pound markedly fell against the US dollar, the main reason was the fundamental data. The National Statistics Office released a report that in December retail sales fell more than expected - 1.5% in December from November, when when the growth was 1%. On an annualized basis, retail sales, including motor gasoline, rose 1.4% after rising 1.5% in November. The year 2017 showed the lowest growth in retail sales since 2013.
At the end of the week, the decline against the US dollar was shown by the Canadian dollar (-0.42%), the highest growth was shown by the Australian dollar (+ 1.06%), Swiss franc (+ 0.50%), New Zealand dollar (+0.33 %), the Japanese yen (+ 0.28%).
The statement about a possible ban on bidding in South Korea began to be associated with the sale of bitcoins by Korean officials on insider information on a preliminary conspiracy. China, for its part, has already caused market failures in the past. For example, back in 2013, the People's Bank of China banned payment companies to work with crypto-exchanges, after which the market immediately fell. Bitcoin's share continues to decline, in January it was 34% of the total capitalization of digital currencies.
Nevertheless, a number of experts give very optimistic forecasts for the rate of the crypto currency. - Analyst Saxo Bank Kai Van Petersen is confident that the price of bitcoin in 2018 is able to grow to $ 50 and even $ 100 thousand, Trace Meyer made an even bigger forecast. He suggested that the price of the first crypto currency could reach $ 115,000 in 2018 after the correction phase is over. Financial analyst Tom Lee predicts that the bitcoin price will reach $ 25,000 by the end of this year and $ 125,000 by 2022.
Fundamentally, the oil market remains strong against the backdrop of a declining supply from OPEC and falling global stocks, as well as growing political risks. As a result, the prices for the WTI brand were reduced to the level of $ 63.02, while the prices for the brand BRENT - to $ 68.36.
Gold prices recovered to the level of $ 1337 for one troy ounce, after which they again fell slightly. The nearest levels of support in gold are $ 1325-1291, resistance levels - $ 1340-1352. After the value of some crypto-currencies has lost more than 40% over the past month, some investors in bitcoin decided to exchange their digital assets for hard gold, gold has an undoubted advantage: it does not have a password that can be forgotten, its volatility is much lower. Gold rates can be predicted for the long term, and the precious metal itself can be touched in physical form, which will not happen in the case of digital currency.
We bring to your attention a number of news, which in the opinion of the team of analysts of the company will have the greatest impact on the market this week.
Monday January 22nd
USA The index of national activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - an assessment of economic activity in general, as well as inflationary risks.
Canada - Wholesales, published by the Statistics Canada, reflects the sales of Canadian wholesalers.
Tuesday January 23rd
Japan - the Bank of Japan's comment on monetary policy, the decision on the interest rate
United Kingdom - Report on net borrowings of the public sector
Eurozone - The index of business expectations, the level of consumer confidence
Germany - Index of assessment of current economic conditions
Wednesday January 24th
Japan - Total trade balance, data on imports and exports, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.
Germany - Indices of business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, composite index.
Eurozone - Indices of business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors,
United Kingdom - data on wages, unemployment and claims for unemployment benefits
USA - The index of housing prices, Business activity indices.
New Zealand - Consumer Price Indices
Thursday January 25
Japan - Data on investments of foreign companies in the economy of the country and investments in foreign bonds.
Germany - Consumer confidence index, an indicator of business expectations and optimism.
Eurozone - The decision of the ECB on deposit and interest rate, press conference and comment on the decision.
Canada - data on retail sales.
USA - primary and repeated applications for unemployment benefits, data on oil and gas reserves.
Friday January 26th
Japan - inflation data, Meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japan
United Kingdom - GDP data
Canada - inflation data