Weekly Outlook 30th of April - 04th of May, 2018

2018-04-30

Last week the Dollar strengthened against the main basket of currencies - the British Pound showed the most weakness - 1.58%, the other currencies - the Canadian dollar -0.55%, Euro -1.3%, Japan's Yen -1.38%. New Zealand dollar -1.5%, Swiss Franc -1.29%.
Data on the US signaled a further increase in activity in the private sector, along with a sharp increase in new orders. The National Association of Realtors said that home sales in the secondary market in March increased by seasonal fluctuations by 1.1%, to 5.6 million units.
Composite index PMI from IHS Markit in April rose to 54.8 points from 54.2 in March, reflecting a faster growth in business activity in the private sector of the US, due to accelerated growth in both manufacturers and service companies. The US Department of Commerce reported that sales of new single-family homes grew more than expected in March, as sales in the West jumped to their highest level in more than 11 years.
The labor market in the United States remains strong, and weekly data on the number of claims for unemployment benefits have been showing for weeks that there are almost no employment problems for Americans. The statistics published yesterday showed that the initial applications for benefits decreased by 24 thousand in a week - quite large - and amounted to 209 thousand. This is significantly better than the forecasts that the figure was 230 thousand. For the currency market, the most indicative is the number of primary, and not repeated requirements.

The downward correction of the euro was due to mixed comments of the head of the ECB Draghi, as well as the lack of any specific information on the future course of monetary policy. As for the ECB meeting, the regulator, as expected, left interest rates unchanged.

The catalysts for the fall of the GBP / USD pair were disappointing data on Britain, as well as the widespread strengthening of the US currency. The Office of National Statistics reported that in the first quarter the UK economy expanded at the slowest pace in more than five years. Gross domestic product grew by only 0.1% in the first quarter and this is the weakest growth since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Basic data on European statistics
The GDP index in France in the first quarter of 2018 was 0.33% qoq, 2.3% yoy (forecast 0.5% qt, 2.4% y, previously 0.6% q / y, 2.5% y / y).
The change in the number of unemployed in Germany, taking into account seasonal fluctuations -7.2 thousand (the forecast was -14 thousand, earlier -18 thousand).
The index of business sentiment in the Eurozone is 111.6 (forecast 112.0, earlier 113.1).
The indicator of the business climate in the euro area is 1.38 (previously 1.35).
The UK GDP index for the first quarter of 2018 was 0.15% qoq, 1.2% yoy (forecast 0.4% qt, 1.4% y, previously 0.45% q / y, 1.5% y / y).

COT reports on bitcoin from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reflect the growth of bearish sentiment among the large speculators, which for the second week are building up a net position to reduce bitcoin. Large speculators in the last week increased sales by 23% - and expect a decrease in bitcoin, even despite the growth of BTC in recent weeks. Continuation of this trend can help reduce the crypto currency. Bitcoin purchases also grew by 15%, and some large speculators do not exclude the continued growth of BTC.

We bring to your attention a number of news, which in the opinion of the team of analysts of the company will have the greatest impact on the market this week.

 

Monday 30 April
Germany - Retail sales, Harmonized consumer price index.
Switzerland - Index of leading indicators.
US - Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index

 

Tuesday May 1
New Zealand - Building Permits.
Australia - Activity index in the manufacturing sector, Reserve Bank of Australia decision on interest rate.
United Kingdom - Number of approved applications for mortgages, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.
Canada - GDP data, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada
USA - Index of Gradual Overclocking of Inflation - The index published by the Supply Management Institute evaluates the state of the US industrial sector, including projections for production, new orders, inventories and supplies.

 

Wednesday 2 May
New Zealand - unemployment rate, change in the number of employed.
Switzerland - Consumer Confidence Index
Eurozone - ECB meeting, GDP data, Unemployment rate.
Germany - Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector Markit.
USA - Decision on the Fed's interest rate, Federal Reserve's comment on monetary policy.

 

Thursday 3 May
Australia - Construction Permit, Export, Import, Trade Balance
UK - Markit Business Services Index
Eurozone - Basic Consumer Price Index, speech by the Deputy Head of the ECB
Canada - International Merchandise Trade Statistics, is the difference between the volume of exports and imports of Canadian goods without considering such an intangible component as services. Export performance is an important indicator of the growth rate of the Canadian economy, since real goods such as oil, gold and industrial products make up the lion's share of Canada's GDP.
US - Trade balance, costs per unit of force, number of primary and repeated applications for unemployment benefits.
Switzerland - Speech by the Head of the National Bank of Switzerland.

 

Friday the 4th of May
Australia - RBA Commentary on Monetary Policy.
New Zealand - Inflation expectations of the RB of New Zealand.
Eurozone - Indices of business activity.
USA - NFP